Monday, November 01, 2004

My prediction 

Bush 284, Kerry 254. Same as 2000, except New Hampshire goes to Kerry and Wisconsin goes to Bush. The big prizes, Florida and Ohio, are within reach if we win the turnout war. But there are enough potential problems in these two states -- voter suppression and electronic voing machines chief among them -- that Bush has the edge. Many people would chose Iowa instead of Wisconsin as the likely Bush pickup in the upper-midwest. However, I think the NRA and the suppression of black voters in Milwaukee will end up putting Wisconsin in the Bush column. Finally, although recent polling puts Bush ahead in New Mexico, I think the increased number of Hispanic voters and popular Democratic governor Bill Richardson will put Kerry on top.

While the presidential election could easily go either way, I'm not very optimistic about our senate chances. There are too many open Democratic seats this cycle, and all the competetive races are in red states, where Bush will have coattails. My predictions:

Alaska: Knowles (D)
Colorado: Salazar (D)
Florida: Martinez (R)
Kentucky: Bunning (R)
Louisiana: Vitter (R) surpasses 50%, avoiding a runoff in December.
North Carolina: Burr (R)
Oklahoma: Coburn (R)
South Carolina: DeMint (R)
South Dakota: Thune (R)

New senate: 54 Republicans, 45 Democrats

The potential big news is Daschle's loss in South Dakota. While this would be a short-term negative because it costs the Democrats a seat, I think it will turn out to be a blessing in the long run. We need a senate leader who doesn't have to sell out Democratic values to get re-elected.

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