Thursday, October 28, 2004

It's a 50-50 race 

Tradesports shares of Bush fell briefly below 50% today, tying the all-time low of 49.5% set in July. What's really remarkable is that for the first time ever that I've seen, traders now think Bush is less likely to win the electoral vote than the popular vote. Until this week, Bush has held a consistent 3-5% advantage in the electoral vote contract compared to the popular vote. Now that advantage is reversed, with Bush at 53% to win the popular vote and only 50% to win the electoral vote. This confirms my earlier speculation that Bush's national numbers are skewed by big leads in red states, and that despite the underlying structural advantage the electoral college proffers Republican candidates (a consequence of the fact that there are more red states than blue states, and that each state gets two "free" electoral votes independent of population), Kerry could conceivably win the electoral vote while losing the popular vote.

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