Sunday, April 18, 2004
The Israeli view on Iraq
Matthew Yglasias explains why democracy in Iraq is not necessarily in Israel's interest:
Interesting point, although I disagree that a failed state in Iraq would constitute "no threat" to Israel. A failed state is likely to lead to some kind of civil war, destabilizing the region. I'm reminded of a post on Aspasia a while back:
This is true, provided nothing really ugly happens in Iraq. A civil war or radical Islamic regime could renew the threat to Israel's eastern border. It does seem that a "pro-American dictatorship," as Matt suggests, would be the best result in Iraq from Israel's point of view.
Back to the Odd Hours main page
Sharon doesn't "want us to win in Iraq" if "winning in Iraq" is defined as establishing a stable Iraqi democracy. Under the circumstances, a democratic Iraq would be strongly anti-Israel (as was the old, undemocratic Iraq), but it will have the sort of global credibility and legitimacy as a state sponsor of the Palestinian cause that the old Iraq utterly lacked. Sharon's best hope is that Iraq either degenerates into a failed state (no threat there) or else that the United States imposes a broadly pro-American dictatorship there as we see in Egypt.
Interesting point, although I disagree that a failed state in Iraq would constitute "no threat" to Israel. A failed state is likely to lead to some kind of civil war, destabilizing the region. I'm reminded of a post on Aspasia a while back:
The defeat of Saddam Hussein removes the last conventional threat from Israel's Eastern border, making the concept of strategic depth obsolete and making clear that the West Bank is a security liability, not a security asset to Israel.
This is true, provided nothing really ugly happens in Iraq. A civil war or radical Islamic regime could renew the threat to Israel's eastern border. It does seem that a "pro-American dictatorship," as Matt suggests, would be the best result in Iraq from Israel's point of view.
© 2004 Odd Hours
Reproduction permitted provided Odd Hours or the author of the quoted post is credited.