Sunday, March 07, 2004

Source of Bin Laden spike? 

On Thursday I wrote about a possible close call involving Osama Bin Laden's capture. What led me to conclude that a close call had probably occurred was a temporary spike in the the prices of contracts on Bin Laden's capture on the futures market Tradesports.com. At first, the news that Bin Laden recently escaped a raid by Pakistani troops seemed a likely candidate for this "close call." But the timing is not right. The Pakistani official quoted on this says he received the information "four days ago," which would put the date of the raid on or before Wednesday, March 3rd; whereas the spike at Tradesports occurred on Thursday night March 4th. One possibility is that although the raid happened earlier, the information did not reach Tradesports traders until the night of the 4th.

Other encouraging news: The son of al Qaeda deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri was recently captured in Pakistan, and has provided useful information on the whereabouts of other senior members of al Qaeda. Also, Newsweek thinks we're getting closer to Bin Laden.

Finally, this Asia Times article speculates on the conspiracy theory that, so far, nobody has taken very seriously: could Bin Laden be captured already?
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