Thursday, March 04, 2004
Bin Laden close call?
Over the past few hours there has been an enormous spike in the price of contracts on the capture of Bin Laden at Tradesports.com:
It recently traded as high as 85.0 (i.e. someone thought there was an 85% chance Bin Laden would be captured by the end of the month). There's no way this effect could just be the result of the recent stories about our planned spring offensive against Bin Laden. These stories have been around for weeks, and the price has been steady between 10 and 20 for a while now. My guess is that some traders had inside information on some kind of close call that happened tonight. We'll have to see whether the media picks it up.
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It recently traded as high as 85.0 (i.e. someone thought there was an 85% chance Bin Laden would be captured by the end of the month). There's no way this effect could just be the result of the recent stories about our planned spring offensive against Bin Laden. These stories have been around for weeks, and the price has been steady between 10 and 20 for a while now. My guess is that some traders had inside information on some kind of close call that happened tonight. We'll have to see whether the media picks it up.
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