Thursday, March 18, 2004
The Arab-American vote
A new Zogby poll confirms what many have speculated about the Arab-American vote. Arab-Americans in four swing states prefer Kerry over Bush 54% to 30%. Unfortunately, when Nader is included he takes an enormous 20%, cutting Kerry's lead to 43-27. Still, this is a huge swing from 2000, when the same sample of voters preferred Bush over Gore 46% to 29%. Over at The Big Picture there's a chart comparing the number of Arab-Americans in key swing states to the margin of victory in the 2000 presidential race.
Zogby says that Arab-Americans tend to vote in higher proportion than the population at large. I couldn't find turnout figures for 2000, but 62% of Arab-Americans turned out to vote in 1996. In the following chart, I've used these figures to estimate how the Arab-American vote will split in 2004:
The second to last column totals the number of net votes gained by the Democrats. In Florida, for example, Bush loses about 14,000 Arab-American votes and Kerry gains about 10,000 for a total swing of 24,552 votes. The last column is the size of this swing as a percentage of the total voter turnout. Since nearly 6 million people voted in Florida in 2000, those 24,552 extra votes represent only about 0.4% of the total votes cast.
Conclusion: While the swings are not huge, they do make a difference. With the kind of support Arab-Americans are now showing for Democrats in the polls, Gore would have won Florida by 24,015 votes, increased his lead over Bush in Michigan to over 6%, and just about come within 3% of Bush in Ohio.
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Zogby says that Arab-Americans tend to vote in higher proportion than the population at large. I couldn't find turnout figures for 2000, but 62% of Arab-Americans turned out to vote in 1996. In the following chart, I've used these figures to estimate how the Arab-American vote will split in 2004:
| 2000 | 2004 | |||||||
| Arab-Americans | Turnout | Bush | Gore | Bush | Kerry | Total Swing | Percentage | |
| Florida | 120,000 | 74,400 | 34,224 | 21,576 | 20,088 | 31,992 | 24,552 | 0.41% |
| Michigan | 235,000 | 145,700 | 67,022 | 42,253 | 39,339 | 62,651 | 48,081 | 1.14% |
| Ohio | 85,000 | 52,700 | 24,242 | 15,283 | 14,229 | 22,661 | 17,391 | 0.37% |
| Pennsylvania | 75,000 | 46,500 | 21,390 | 13,485 | 12,555 | 19,995 | 15,345 | 0.31% |
The second to last column totals the number of net votes gained by the Democrats. In Florida, for example, Bush loses about 14,000 Arab-American votes and Kerry gains about 10,000 for a total swing of 24,552 votes. The last column is the size of this swing as a percentage of the total voter turnout. Since nearly 6 million people voted in Florida in 2000, those 24,552 extra votes represent only about 0.4% of the total votes cast.
Conclusion: While the swings are not huge, they do make a difference. With the kind of support Arab-Americans are now showing for Democrats in the polls, Gore would have won Florida by 24,015 votes, increased his lead over Bush in Michigan to over 6%, and just about come within 3% of Bush in Ohio.
© 2004 Odd Hours
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