Sunday, February 29, 2004

Election Odds 

Tradesports.com has odds on all kinds of political events. Rather than set the odds themselves, they run a futures market, letting customers buy and sell contracts from each other. Historically, futures markets have predicted election outcomes and other events with remarkable accuracy.

Chance that Bin Laden is captured or killed by the end of 2004? 55%. That's bad news for the democrats' chances in November.

Who will be the democratic VP nominee? The frontrunner is John Edwards (35%), followed by Wesley Clark and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson tied at 12%. I'm surprised Richardson is that low given his inherent advantages (hispanic, from a swing state, Washington outsider with foreign policy experience; he was formerly the US ambassador to the UN). Dick Gephardt is fourth at 7%.
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